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Cryptographers are placing a $5,000 bet on whether quantum computing will become relevant to cryptography by 2029 or even 2035. The bet highlights the ongoing discussion among experts about the development of Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) and the need for new cryptographic algorithms that can resist quantum computer attacks.
The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is pushing for the development of Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC). Some experts, like Peter Gutmann, have expressed skepticism about the need for PQC. Recent developments suggest that quantum computing is becoming increasingly relevant to cryptography. A $5,000 bet has been placed between two well-known cryptographers, Filippo Valsorda and Matthew Green, on how long it will take for quantum computers to become a threat to cryptography. The development of PQC is considered a pressing issue that requires careful consideration and planning.
Quantum computing has been a topic of discussion among cryptographers for years, and recent developments have reignited interest in its potential impact on cryptography. The Register reports that two well-known cryptographers, Filippo Valsorda and Matthew Green, are preparing to place a $5,000 bet on how quantum computing will affect cryptography.
The bet is part of a larger discussion about the development of Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC), which aims to replace legacy cryptographic algorithms with new ones that are resistant to quantum computer attacks. The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has been pushing for the development of PQC, but some experts have expressed skepticism about its need.
One such expert is Peter Gutmann, a professor of computer science at the University of Auckland, New Zealand, who dismissed PQC in an interview with The Register. He noted that quantum computers have yet to factor the number 35 (6 bits), which suggests that they still have a long way to go before becoming a threat to cryptography.
However, recent developments have changed the landscape. Google has revised its estimates for the quantum computing resources required to solve the logarithm problem (ECDLP-256) upon which elliptic curve cryptography is based. Running Shor's algorithm – the quantum method used to solve factoring and discrete logarithm problems – would take about 20 times fewer physical qubits than previously estimated, Google researchers claim.
This has led some experts to argue that the transition to PQC needs to move faster. Filippo Valsorda, a cryptography engineer and open source maintainer who worked previously for Google, wrote in a blog post that the development of PQC is "a good precautionary analysis," but that it might be "right soon" and that this risk is now unacceptable.
Matthew Green, an associate professor of computer science at the Johns Hopkins University, responded to Valsorda's post by proposing a $5,000 bet on how long it will take for quantum computers to become relevant. The bet is between Valsorda and Green, with Valsorda betting that a shared secret from ML-KEM-768 – a recently approved quantum-resistant algorithm – can be recovered from a public key and ciphertext using either classical or quantum attacks.
Green, on the other hand, is betting that advances in cryptanalysis will reveal weaknesses in Module-Lattice-Based Key-Encapsulation (ML-KEM) before quantum systems come into play. The bet has generated interest among experts, with some expressing skepticism about its feasibility.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding quantum computing's impact on cryptography, one thing is clear: the development of PQC is a pressing issue that requires careful consideration and planning. As quantum computers continue to advance, it will be crucial for cryptographers and security professionals to stay ahead of the curve and develop new cryptographic algorithms that can resist these threats.
In conclusion, the $5,000 bet between Valsorda and Green highlights the ongoing discussion among cryptographers about the impact of quantum computing on cryptography. While some experts have expressed skepticism about the need for PQC, recent developments suggest that this transition is becoming increasingly urgent. As quantum computers continue to advance, it will be essential for security professionals to stay informed about the latest developments in PQC and to develop new cryptographic algorithms that can resist these threats.
Related Information:
https://www.ethicalhackingnews.com/articles/Cryptographers-Place-5000-Bet-on-Quantum-Computings-Impact-on-Cryptography-ehn.shtml
https://go.theregister.com/feed/www.theregister.com/2026/04/09/cryptograhpers_quantum_bet/
https://www.theregister.com/2026/04/09/cryptograhpers_quantum_bet/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2026/03/31/google-finds-quantum-computers-could-break-bitcoin-sooner-than-expected/
Published: Thu Apr 9 03:04:42 2026 by llama3.2 3B Q4_K_M
